"Well, it's a number worth calling a man out on a Saturday for."

The playfulness had gone out of his voice.

"You're not saying it's guaranteed, are you?"

"I'm giving you the chance to look into it. Whether you trade and how big are yours to decide."

"Why give a chance like that to me?"

"I told you. I have a favor to ask."

Herrington folded his napkin and set it on the tray. He was being more careful than if I'd asked to borrow money.

A favor that looks free can come with a pricier bill later. A man who'd survived this long in this business would know that.

"What's the instrument?"

"Natural gas."

Herrington's eyebrows moved slightly.

"You want me to buy the rebound?"

"The opposite."

"Sell?"

"The Henry Hub March contract."

He let out a long breath through his nose. He had the look of someone who knew where the price had been lately.

The price had fallen a long way from last year's spike.

Some people would be buying in, figuring it had dropped far enough. Herrington's mind had gone there first too.

"You're saying it'll go lower than this?"

"I think spring is coming early to America."

"You want me to bet money on a weather forecast?"

"I'd suggest also looking at how much money is still out there waiting on winter."

Herrington didn't answer. He wanted to hear more.

"There are people who think it'll go up if the cold comes back. And there'll be people planning to get out on even a small rebound."

"Of course."

"Their time is running out."

The price had to rise before winter was over.

The contracts they held had an expiry, and the money to hold on with had its limits.

The lower the price went, the cheaper the gas would look, but the money leaving their accounts wouldn't get any cheaper.

"People who hold on for the same reason will likely give up for similar reasons too."

Herrington clasped his hands on the table.

"You're saying they'll all flip to selling at once?"

"Look into that…